New England Regionals Analysis

Jimmy is an experienced player who has been playing the Pokémon TCG since its release. In addition to many tournament wins, he took 4th at the 2008 World Championships.

I had a great time at Regionals this weekend even if I didn’t perform as well as I had hoped to. TJ Collectibles ran a top notch event. I’m going to be talking about Regionals in two parts; the first part will be about it as a competitive happening.

This is what the Top 32 (of 132) looked like, including who played what:

Standing Name Swiss Wins Losses Deck
1 Sam Chen 7 1 Yanmega/Magnezone
2 Aziz Al-Yami 7 1 Yanmega/Magnezone
3 Dylan Lefavour 7 1 Typhlosion/Reshiram
4 Edwin Lopez 7 1 Emboar/Reshiram
5 Thomas Masse Jr. 7 1 Emboar/Reshiram
6 Michael Skoran 7 1 The Truth
7 Gary Lawson 6 2 Gengar/Vileplume
8 Brandon Morris 6 2 Donphan/Zoroark/Cinccino/Yanmega
9 Nick Chimento 6 2 Absol/Zoroark/Yanmega/Weavile
10 Andrew Kolbert 6 2 Typhlosion/Reshiram
11 Guillaume Levesque-Suave 6 2 ZPST
12 Vikas Parmar 6 2 Donphan/Zoroark/Reshiram/Zekrom
13 Frank Diaz 6 2 ZPST
14 Jeremy Jones 6 2 Typhlosion/Reshiram
15 Johnny Chimento 6 2 Gothitelle
16 Jonathan Paranada 6 2 ZPST
17 Brian Garcia 6 2 Emboar/Reshiram
18 Christian Ortiz 6 2 Mew/Donphan/Yanmega/Basculin
19 Alex Frezza 5 3 Yanmega/Magnezone
20 Frankie Durso 5 3 Gothitelle
21 Rob Weidemann 5 3 Typhlosion/Reshiram
22 John Conti 5 3 ZPST
23 Ray Cipoletti 5 3 Typhlosion/Reshiram
24 Jennifer Badamo 5 3 Gothitelle
25 Andy Kay 5 3 Kingdra/Cinccino
26 Geoffrey Graves 5 3 ZPST
27 Darrell Moreno 5 3 Yanmega/Magnezone
28 Gino Lombardi 5 3 ZPST
29 Azul Garcia Griego 5 3 ZPST
30 Frank LaSalle Sr. 5 3 Yanmega/Magnezone
31 Justin Bokhari 5 3 Typhlosion/Reshiram
32 Michael Bergerac 5 3 Emboar/Magnezone

These were the final records for each deck:

Deck Quantity Wins Losses Win %
ZPST 7 38 18 68%
Typhlosion/Reshiram 6 34 14 71%
Yanmega/Magnezone 5 29 11 73%
Gothitelle 4 23 9 72%
Emboar/Reshiram 2 13 3 81%
The Truth 1 7 1 88%
Gengar/Vileplume 1 6 2 75%
Donphan/Zoroark/Cinccino/Yanmega 1 6 2 75%
Absol/Zoroark/Yanmega/Weavile 1 6 2 75%
Donphan/Zoroark/Reshiram/Zekrom 1 6 2 75%
Mew/Donphan/Yanmega/Basculin 1 6 2 75%
Kingdra/Cinccino 1 5 3 63%
Emboar/Magnezone 1 5 3 63%

The top three decks were Prime Time, Reshiphlosion, and ZPST. There were six Trainer lock decks as well, but I didn’t want to skew analysis by combining too many different decks; the same could be said of the four decks that emphasized various Stage 1 Pokémon. This only covers Swiss wins and losses, but I still thought it was interesting to look at how the different decks performed. Other than decks that squeaked in at a single copy going 5-3, you’ll see ZPST having the lowest win percentage. If one piece of data made me glad I didn’t play that deck, it had to be this one. Quirky note: Brian Garcia filled out his decklist incorrectly and was forced to remove his Reshirams from his deck – and still made cut.

If you’re wondering how the decks that are laundry lists of Pokémon did well, I would attribute it to a few factors. These players played well; they weren’t the skill level of someone new at league with all of their favorite characters. Less experienced players, even ones with above average decklists, were unprepared for what these strange decks might do. There is, has been, and will be a lot of variance and random chance in Pokémon, so while one of these decks might have even been the best deck at the event, there are no guarantees; no one definitely makes or misses cut.

While I don’t have a bracket, it is worth noting what the Top 4 was like: 3 Prime Times (Sam, Aziz, and Alex) and a Reshiphlosion (Rob). Alex defeated Sam in the finals.

I plan on following up this “tournament perspective” with an “experience perspective” piece.

5 responses to “New England Regionals Analysis”

  1. Jason P. Annichiarico

    Nicely done, Jimmy. Great Read

  2. Christian Ortiz

    http://challonge.com/pkmnreg2011

    I did the brackets for everyone who won/lost jimmy. All the numbers are peoples standings before top cut. hope this helps.

  3. Andrew Knaack

    The percentages are a really shallow way of analyzing the data. This only takes into consideration the people who got to the top cut while mindlessly ignoring the true data of win percentage. For example: sure there were a couple people that did well than TyRam, but that doesn’t mean it necessarily did better percentage wise ZPST or Prime Time, since it does not truly reflect win percentage. I am sure for every 5-3 Tyram there is probably a 3-5 one keeping it company.

  4. Jimmy O'Brien

    Andrew, I don’t see ignoring players who missed cut as ‘mindless’, more than anything it is a practical concern. I simply can’t process every match result in great detail, nor every player’s day. The people who make cut, on average, are playing with more skill than those who did not. Unskilled results with a great list (the hypothetical 3-5 TyRam player you are certain exists… without attending my event) shouldn’t speak against players who played well and worked hard. If you’re interested in some deeper data, take a look at the link Christian posted below for something interesting to think about.

  5. Gary Ugrinovskiy

    I am really happy. First my cousin becomes the 2010-2011 New York state champion then to Top 32 at 2011 pokemon nationals and then he gets 6th place at regional’s. Considering it is only his second season of being in Pokemon TCG.